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Today, Asian central banks hold approximately $1.5 trillion in US dollar-denominated
reserve assets. Most of the world's international reserves come into existence as a
result of the United States current account deficit. That deficit is now $1 million a
minute. Last year, it amounted to $503 billion or roughly 2% of global GDP. The combined
international reserves of the countries with a current account surplus increase by more
or less the same amount as the US current account deficit each year. So central bankers
must worry not only about their existing stockpile of dollar reserves, but also about
the flow of new US dollar reserves they will continue to accumulate each year so long
as their countries continue to achieve a surplus on their overall balance of payments.
With the depreciation of the dollar rapidly gaining momentum, Asian central bankers are scrambling to find alternative, non-dollar denominated investment vehicles in which to hold their countries' reserves. Consequently, this is a topic that is attracting considerable attention in the press. Since the breakdown of Bretton Woods, dollars have replaced gold as the international reserve currency. The international monetary system now functions on a Dollar Standard rather than a Gold Standard.
The primary characteristic of The Dollar Standard is that it has allowed the United
States to finance extraordinarily large current account deficits by selling debt
instruments to its trading partners instead of paying for its imports with gold as
would have been required under the Bretton Woods System or The Gold Standard.
In this manner, The Dollar Standard has ushered in the age of globalization by allowing the rest of the world to sell their products to the United States on credit. This arrangement has had the benefit of allowing much more rapid economic growth, particularly in large parts of the developing world, than could have occurred otherwise. It also has put downward pressure on consumer prices and, therefore, interest rates in the United States as cheap manufactured goods made with very low-cost labor have been imported into the United States in rapidly increasing amounts. However, it is now becoming increasingly apparent that The Dollar Standard has also resulted in a number of undesirable and potentially disastrous consequences. First, it is clear that countries which built up large stockpiles of international reserves through current account or financial account surpluses have experienced severe economic overheating and hyper-inflation in asset prices that ultimately resulted in economic collapse. Japan and the Asia crisis countries are the most obvious examples of countries that suffered from that process. Those countries were able to avoid complete economic depression only because their governments went deeply into debt to bailout the depositors of their bankrupt banks. Second, flaws in the current international monetary system have also resulted in economic overheating and hyper-inflation in asset prices in the United States as that country's trading partners have reinvested their dollar surpluses (i.e. their reserve assets) in dollar-denominated assets. Their acquisitions of stocks, corporate bonds, and US agency debt have helped fuel the stock market bubble, facilitated the extraordinary misallocation of corporate capital, and helped drive US property prices to unsustainable levels. Third, the credit creation The Dollar Standard made possible has resulted in overinvestment on a grand scale across almost every industry worldwide. Overinvestment has produced excess capacity and deflationary pressures that are undermining corporate profitability around the world. Full Article Click Here (PFD file) |